HAND READING

If you start out playing small stakes games, as most poker players do, you’ll likely see a lot of erratic play that is not consistent with what you are learning about good poker strategy. This is because you are playing with a lot of inexperienced players, and also some for whom the money at stake is not significant enough to induce them to put effort into playing well.

Such erratic behavior often leads to the mistaken belief that these players could have anything, and that there is therefore no sense in trying to read their hands or make plays based on judgments about what they may hold. However, throwing up your hands in frustration will mean a quick dead-end to your poker career. Instead, you should take a deep breath and realize that information is everywhere — you just have to know what to look for and what to do with it when you find it.

In this two-part article I will address hand reading specifically and make some suggestions about how you can glean information even from the seemingly erratic and random behavior of your least sophisticated opponents.

A Couple of Misconceptions

I want to begin by addressing two common misconceptions. The first is one at which I’ve already hinted. The fact is, your opponents are not truly random with their play, and it’s not true that they could have “anything.”

Their reasons may not be your reasons and their reasons may not be good reasons, but unless they are literally throwing a die to determine their actions or going all in blind every hand then there is some method to their madness. There are some hands they’ll fold, and there are some hands they’ll never fold. Your goal is to find that method, or at least deduce enough about it to figure how to exploit it. More on that in a moment.

The second misconception has to do with the term “hand reading,” which is really a misnomer. You may have seen Daniel Negreanu on television naming the exact suits of the cards in his opponent’s hand, but that’s not your real goal.What you should be aiming for might better be called “range reading.” Your goal is not to figure out which exact two cards your opponent holds — this is usually impossible even for the best hand readers — but rather to get a sense of the entire set of hands he would play in the way that he’s played so far. In other words, it’s not about “What exactly does he have?” Rather, it’s about “What are all the things he could have?” and — more to the point — “What should I do to get the best average result against all of those possibilities?”

Once you learn to frame questions regarding what your opponents might have like this, a little bit of information can go a long way. Let’s look at an example.

Hand Reading in Practice

Suppose that you raise with  in early position, and several very loose players call you. We’ll stop right there — what can you say about their ranges?

This is a situation that often leads to frustration and complaints about bad play. When your opponents play half of the cards they’re dealt, how can you ever figure out what they have? You can’t, at least not with any precision. But you can probably say a couple of important things about what they don’t have.

For example, most players will reraise with  or better, so the fact that no one reraised means you probably aren’t up against those hands. That eliminates some significant threats for you after the flop. Perhaps you can also say that although these players will play any remotely suited or connected hand, they won’t call with unsuited garbage like . After all, players who will call with half their hands still fold the other half, and what could that folding range look like if not unsuited, unconnected junk hands?

With nothing more than those tidbits of information, you see the flop, and it’s a great-looking , giving you top pair, top kicker. But still, with four or five loose players seeing the flop along with you, isn’t there a danger that someone has outflopped you? Yes, but the situation isn’t as grave as it seems.

Let’s return to the little bit of hand reading we were able to do preflop. Remember: we still have no idea what your opponents have, we just have a rough idea of what they don’t have. You don’t have to worry about overpairs, because we think  or  would have reraised. Likewise with , not to mention that there are only two queens left in the deck.

MATHEMATICS IN POKER

Using mathematics for drawing hands

Mathematics can be used in many different situations; however, they are most commonly used when a player is on a draw such as a flush or straight draw.

If an opponent makes a bet and you are on a draw, you are faced with the decision of whether or not you should call to try and complete the draw by the next card, or fold and let your opponent take the pot.

In this situation a player that has good knowledge of poker mathematics will always know whether or not to call, whilst a player that has no knowledge of mathematics will be unsure.

Players who are unfamiliar with poker odds will make an educated guess on whether or not they should call. If the bet is large, they may feel that it is too expensive to try and catch the right card, but if the bet is small they will be more inclined to call.

On the other hand, a player that can use poker mathematics correctly will be able to work out the pot odds they are getting on the hand and act accordingly. Pot odds take into account the amount your opponent has bet in relation to the pot, and the likelihood of completing your draw to inform you about whether or not you should call or fold.

Expected value.

There are other situations that incorporate mathematics a little more loosely, but still incorporate them nonetheless. The following situation is an example of ‘Expected Value’.

Say for example you are on the river holding bottom pair and your opponent bets $4 into a $10 pot, what should you do? If you have no concrete evidence from the way the hand played out about whether or not your opponent has a better hand than you, you can use mathematics to determine whether or not you should call.

Example of using mathematics in poker.

First of all you should estimate that probability that your opponent is bluffing and holds a worse hand than you. Lets say that:

• Our opponent is a little tricky and bluffs 1 time for every 3 times he has the best hand on the river.
• This means that there is a 1 in 4 chance that we will have a better hand than our opponent.
• Therefore there is 3 in 4 chance that we do not have the best hand.
• So for every 3 times we lose, 1 time we will win (3-to-1).

Thus if we call and have the best hand we will win $14 once, but if we call and have the worst hand we will lose $4 three times. As a result if we called every time, we would lose $12 (3 x $4) and win $14 after 4 hands. This means that we would be making a net profit of $2 if we called on the river every time, therefore we should make the call.

The above paragraph probably didn't make a lot of sense the first time you read it, but trust us; it isn't as hard as we made it sound. A simpler way to interpret what we just said is that you should have better odds of winning than the pot is giving you. In the above example we had to call $4 to win a $14 pot, which is $3.5-to-$1. Our odds of winning are 3-to-1, which means we have better odds of winning than the odds in the pot.